Global infrastructure investors are highly selective. When assessing potential investment options they consider a wide range of factors and when looking at Public Private Partnership (PPP) opportunities they scrutinise a country’s PPP track record, the competence and experience of the procuring authority, and the wider financial and political climate. They ask whether a project commands durable political support and whether upcoming political change could threaten its delivery. Through this lens, how will investors judge Dublin’s MetroLink project (a PPP), where private finance is fundamental to making it happen?
History
Those with grey hair will remember that the Metrolink project has been kicking around for 25 odd years (previously under the name Metro North) and back in 2008 the Procurement body responsible for its delivery (at that time the rail procurement agency or RPA) progressed the project through competitive process involving multiple international consortia to a shortlist of two before canning the project due to the economic backdrop and lack of funding in 2011.
Those without grey hair only have to look back to last June when the newly appointed Irish Housing minister James Browne paused procurement of 3 substantial bundles of social housing projects due to be delivered via the PPP model whilst the costs were reviewed. One of these bundles was at preferred bidder status and just 3 weeks from commencing on site (https://www.thejournal.ie/housing-delayed-ppp-6725958-Jun2025/). Worth taking a moment to consider the private sector finance teams, contractors, subcontractors, suppliers, design teams ramped up to deliver more than €100m worth of work following a competitive tender process who were then told the project (along with 2 others of a similar scale at bid phase) was on hold pending a review of indefinite duration.
Unsurprising then that despite extensive media coverage, the appointment of a Project Director with internationally relevant experience and a roadshow of the project throughout Europe’s capital cities by Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII) to drum up interest there remained some doubts about the certainty of Dublin’s metro project up until about a week ago. This was not helped by the absence of a railway order (planning permission) for the project right up until November. When the railway order did arrive it was quickly followed by an objection by a group of residents living at one end of the project (Dartmouth Square) which could have led a to a judicial review and delay the project by two or more years.
Planning
For many (like us) who have tracked this project and are familiar with Irelands planning process this was not particularly surprising. In fact Irelands planning system with its independent appeals board (An Coimisiún Pleanála) is unique in Europe and just one objection can (and has) delayed important infrastructure development. Critical light rail and water infrastructure projects have suffered similar fates in the very recent past:
https://www.thejournal.ie/greater-dublin-drainage-project-objection-6808167-Sep2025/
Deal
What was very surprising was the announcement two days before Christmas that all objections to the project were withdrawn and the project was now ‘full steam ahead’. To add some effect this news was conveyed to Joe Public directly by the transport minister by social media in his civvies and slippers (off camera) from his home office and described as ‘an early Christmas present’. Through a mediation process TII had come to an agreement with the owners of 10 houses in Charlemont Square housing the objectors to purchase their homes in exchange for the residents withdrawing their request for judicial review. No further details were offered on the deal.
What was remarkable about this dramatic 11th hour development was not that 10 house owners had simultaneously agreed to sell their houses to the state (not one documentary worthy standout?, no stalling for a better deal, no cost benefit analysis or stewards inquiry?) but that somebody within the Irish civil service had sanctioned the purchase (and done so quickly) thus insuring the progress of what will be one of Europe’s largest Infrastructure projects this decade. This type of pragmatic, businesslike, spend money to save time approach was exactly what observers did not expect from the Irish state. For a chief investment officer considering a two year delay and poised to redeploy their firepower elsewhere this was just the sort of move that offered reassurance regarding the project’s seemingly invisible guardianship.
Optimism
In truth there had been signs the mood music around Metrolink had been different than previous efforts at the project for some time. For one, this time around public opinion appears to be firmly onside. Dublin was recently ranked 11th globally in terms of congestion and commuters on the ground have been reporting gridlock on all the major arteries around Irelands capital city during peak times. This despite TII removing toll booths on Irelands M50 ring road, widening lanes and improving approach roads. Hans Zimmer’s recent Dublin concerts at the 3Arena (November 2025) were significantly impacted by severe traffic congestion, including a large taxi driver protest, causing late starts and delays, with Zimmer himself commenting on the “apocalyptic gridlock” around the concert venue. When the objection by the Dartmouth Square residents was announced a media frenzy around the identity of the objectors began. The nature of their professional work (one worked in sustainability for a public sector body), business interests and geographical location within the square were all scrutinised. Some social media users suggested boycotting businesses associated with the objectors. Their stance was not a popular one.
The project also enjoys almost universal political support so even a dramatic political upheaval should leave the project unaffected. Public finances are healthy (although heavily reliant on multinational corporate tax take) and the current Government has a potential 3 more years in power which should allow adequate time to get the project rolling. The project will be funded at least in part using PPP so short term capital expenditure will be reduced significantly in comparison to the total capital cost. PPP has been utilised in the Irish context for over 20 years with some of the initial projects now approaching handback. Unlike the UK and despite the social housing bundles debacle previously referenced the model has enjoyed mostly positive public relations with multiple projects in the 3rd level education sector tendered in the last few years (Grangegorman PPP and Higher Education Bundles 1 & 2) and projects like roads, schools and primary care centres all now successfully operating.
What next?
The Irish Transport minister has suggested that procurement for the project can now begin immediately but is also seeking the establishment of a dedicated body to oversee its delivery. This will presumably be resourced from existing staff associated with the project from TII and possibly staff from the national development finance agency (NDFA) which to date has overseen procurement of PPP projects in the social infrastructure space. TII has also leaned heavily on international consultancies and secondee’s for specialist rail expertise. The procurement process for much smaller and less complex PPP projects in Ireland has taken 18+ months so we can expect at least that for this project. Current estimates of a preferred tenderer appointed and construction commencement in early 2027 appear ambitious but lets hope we are surprised again. There will some big moments in this project over the coming years. Some will be financial, some engineering and some may even be political. Most will receive more attention and headlines than the transport minister’s video message from his home office on the 22nd December but make no mistake - this was huge.
John Byrne is a Director at Kingfisher Search, a leading executive search firm with offices in Dublin and London. For more than two decades, Kingfisher Search has partnered with investors, developers, operators, and consultants across the infrastructure sector, supporting critical appointments on many of Europe’s flagship infrastructure and PPP projects.
